The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund — the account that pays retirement benefits — will run out of money in 2032, several years sooner than earlier estimates.

Why the fund is shrinking

Social Security has been paying out more in benefits than it collects in payroll taxes every year since 2010. Costs have been growing roughly 5% a year, compared to about 4% growth in payroll tax revenue, and CBO estimates the program will pay out $207 billion more than it collects in 2026 alone.

What “insolvency” doesn’t mean

Trust fund depletion doesn’t mean Social Security disappears or stops sending checks. By law, the Social Security Administration can’t pay out more than it takes in once the trust fund balance hits zero — so once 2032 arrives without any changes, benefits would automatically be reduced to whatever level current payroll tax revenue can support. CBO estimates that would mean benefits roughly 23% to 28% below what’s currently scheduled.

What this means for planning

Congress has addressed shortfalls like this before, and lawmakers from both parties have floated various fixes over the years, from adjusting the payroll tax cap to changing the benefit formula. None of that has been enacted yet. For now, financial planners generally suggest not assuming Social Security will be your only source of retirement income, and factoring a possible benefit reduction into long-term retirement math if you’re more than a few years from claiming.

If you’re closer to retirement age, the Social Security Administration’s own benefit estimator at ssa.gov still reflects current scheduled amounts, since no cut is in effect yet — but it’s worth checking back as the 2032 date approaches in case Congress changes the underlying rules.