After Atlanta’s blowout win over Green Bay on Thursday night, the NFL’s Week 4 slate rolls on with a full Sunday of games. Here’s a look at some of the matchups drawing the most attention, along with the win probabilities heading into kickoff.

Chiefs Heavily Favored Against Dolphins

Kansas City enters as a strong favorite at home, projected with roughly an 84 percent win probability against Miami. The Dolphins will need a near-perfect performance to pull off the road upset against a Chiefs team that has looked sharp early in the season.

Seahawks Expected to Handle Commanders

Seattle carries close to a 79 percent win probability heading into its matchup with Washington, making it one of the more lopsided projections on the board this week.

Bills Favored at Home Over Chargers

Buffalo sits around a 74 percent win probability hosting the Chargers, a matchup that pits one of the AFC’s most explosive offenses against a Los Angeles team looking to prove it belongs in the conference’s upper tier.

The Closer Calls

Not every game projects as lopsided. Houston and Indianapolis are roughly a coin flip, with the Texans given a slight edge at just over 53 percent. Cincinnati is favored over Pittsburgh at around 63 percent, while Carolina holds a modest edge over Cleveland near 56 percent. Games projected this close often come down to turnovers and special teams, the kind of details that don’t show up in a probability model.

Why These Numbers Matter, and Why They Don’t

Win probabilities reflect current form, injuries, and matchup history, but they’re projections, not guarantees. Upsets happen essentially every week in the NFL, which is a big part of why Sundays remain appointment viewing even when the numbers seem to favor one side heavily.

Related reading: Falcons Rout Packers 35-14 on Thursday Night